Budget Deviation Factors and Project Performance at Holland GreenTech, Rwanda

Gilbert Tuyisenge and Ruth Odengo
University of Kigali, Rwanda
Email: gtuyisenge@ymail.com

Abstract: Agricultural projects implemented by private firms require disciplined budgeting because deviations from planned costs can affect time, quality, scope, stakeholder satisfaction, and achievement of objectives. This study assessed budget deviation factors and project performance at Holland GreenTech Rwanda, focusing on financial planning, price fluctuations, and scope creep. A cross-sectional explanatory case-study design with a mixed-methods approach was used. The target population was 224 project staff, technical personnel, administrative and finance staff, monitoring personnel, and beneficiaries. Yamane’s formula generated a planned sample of 144 respondents, of whom 114 returned complete questionnaires, giving a 79.2% response rate; key informants provided qualitative evidence. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, multiple linear regression, and binary logistic regression, while interviews were analyzed thematically. Financial planning was positively associated with project success (r = 0.581, p < 0.001; B = 0.356, p < 0.001). Price fluctuations (r = -0.477, p < 0.001; B = -0.214, p = 0.001) and scope creep (r = -0.536, p < 0.001; B = -0.285, p < 0.001) were negatively associated with success. The multiple regression model explained 48.4% of variation in project success. The study recommends realistic budgeting, regular price reviews, contingency provisions, early procurement, supplier arrangements, and formal approval of scope changes.