Beyond Weather Forecasts: Integrating Indigenous Knowledge and Scientific Seasonal Forecasting to Enhance Household Food Security among Smallholder Farmers in Kenya
Jane Kositany, Peter Gutwa Oino & Daniel Angwenyi
Department of Sociology, Gender and Development Studies
Kisii University, Kenya
Email: kosymemoi@yahoo.co.uk
Abstract: Climate variability continues to threaten agricultural productivity and household food security among smallholder farmers who depend largely on rain-fed agriculture. Although scientific seasonal forecasting has improved considerably, many rural households continue to rely on Indigenous Knowledge (IK) to guide farming decisions. However, empirical evidence on how these complementary knowledge systems influence household food security remains limited, particularly within Kenya’s climate-vulnerable regions. This study examined the role of Indigenous Knowledge and scientific seasonal forecasting in enhancing household food security in Bomet County, Kenya. Guided by Human Capability Theory, Indigenous Knowledge Systems Theory, and Social-Ecological Systems Theory, the study adopted a descriptive mixed-methods design. Quantitative data were collected from 398 farming households using structured questionnaires, while qualitative evidence was generated through 15 key informant interviews and six focus group discussions. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and regression analysis, whereas qualitative data were analysed thematically. The findings show that 91.2% of households relied on Indigenous Knowledge for weather-related decisions, while 77.4% combined Indigenous Knowledge with scientific seasonal forecasts before making agricultural decisions. A strong positive relationship was found between Indigenous Knowledge, seasonal forecasting, and household food security (r = 0.682, p < 0.001), with regression analysis indicating that the two knowledge systems explained 46.5% of the variation in household food security (R² = 0.465; β = 0.682, p < 0.001). Farmers integrated ecological indicators, including flowering patterns, bird migration, cloudformations, and wind direction, with meteorological forecasts to guide planting, crop selection, water conservation, and food storage. The study concludes that Indigenous Knowledge and scientific forecasting are complementary systems whose integration can strengthen household resilience, improve adaptive capacity, and enhance sustainable food security under increasing climate variability. The study recommends that participatory forecasting platforms that bring together meteorologists, extension officers, community elders, and farmers should be strengthened to improve the credibility, local relevance, and uptake of climate advisories.
