Mfitiryayo Jean de Dieu – Department of Development Studies and International Relations, School of Social Sciences
Kigali Independent University (ULK), Kigali, Rwanda

Mukabalisa Janet – Department of Development Studies and International Relations, School of Social Sciences
Kigali Independent University (ULK), Kigali, Rwanda

Email: okichjohnsimon@gmail.com

Abstract: This study examines whether and under what conditions media narratives shape international responses to the Russia–Ukraine war, focusing on the Donbas conflict, 2022–2026. Existing scholarship often examines media framing and state behaviour separately, with limited integration of both within one design. Using a documentary-review design, the study triangulated peer-reviewed literature, institutional records, and twelve purposively selected media documents from Russian, Western, and Asian/non-aligned outlets against verified data on civilian harm, sanctions, military assistance, refugee protection, legal accountability, information regulation, energy security, and public opinion. Narrative–response correspondence was coded ordinally across eight sectors and five years (n = 40) and tested using exact non-parametric procedures. Findings show divergent conflict labels, themes, and attribution of responsibility across media systems (H₁). Overall correspondence was moderate (M = 2.13/3), with 75% of sector-years showing at least moderate and 35% strong correspondence (H₂). Correspondence was highest for public opinion and lowest for sanctions (H₃), declined from 2022 to 2023–2025 (p = .031; H₄), while verified civilian casualties increased by 52% between January–August 2025 and 2026 (p = .008; H₅). Alliance structures, economic dependencies, and institutional momentum conditioned outcomes (H₆–H₇). Media narratives primarily legitimised existing strategic architectures rather than independently driving policy.